Trade Tensions Simmer, Markets Stay Grounded, LFG Daily - July 8th, 2025

New tariff threats spark global chatter, but investors remain focused on inflation data and fundamentals

Lloyd Financial Group

Jul 08, 2025

🧨 LFG Daily – July 8, 2025

Tariff alarms go off. Markets yawn—but smart positioning means tuning in.

📉 Market & Economic Pulse

Trump escalates tariffs—again
President Trump sent letters to 14 countries—including Japan and South Korea—threatening sharply higher tariffs by August 1. Markets dipped briefly but stabilized; traders expect messy negotiations, not shockwaves.
Gold rallies—safe haven in play
Gold hit $3,300/oz, a 26.6% gain YTD, driven by trade uncertainty—even as Citi warns a 20% correction remains possible.
Dollar gets a break—euro pushes higher
The dollar firmed slightly, but the euro is riding strength amid shifting trade dynamics. Expect currency plays to remain key exposure.
Oil dips as OPEC+ weighs in
Brent retraced to $68.5/barrel after OPEC+ surged output—not exactly a cushion for traders worried about from-demand.
Stocks shrug off tariff noise
Amid the noise, U.S. and Asian stocks held steady. Investors are seasoned to building trade tension—but still watching.

🌐 Geopolitics & Trade

China warns of retaliation
Beijing issued warnings against nations that partner with the U.S. in reshaping supply chains—escalating the broader trade standoff.
BRICS push back
BRICS leaders rejected Trump’s rhetoric, saying the world doesn’t need an “emperor.” Global unity against trade extremism is rising.

🟢 LFG Hot Takes — Crafted for Calm & Clear Action

Tariff threats are predictable—but relevance matters
The tariff drumbeat is familiar; markets shrugged. But sharp increases in August could change investor tone in a flash. This is the headline volatility I’ve talked about for weeks. This tariff volatility is going to stick around the rest of 2025. I expect some nations to not play so nice, but tariff talk as we saw early in the year actually benefited other countries. This should be a good spot to buy international countries via ETF’s and sell some domestic positions. A weakening dollar will help prop-up international. India, Argentina, Mexico, South Korea & South Africa are very interesting ones to look into.
Gold is offering a real-time stress indicator
At $3,300/oz, gold is screaming caution. Whether it corrects or holds near peaks, it signals hedging sentiment—and that means you should think in layers. I own GLD in my client portfolio’s and think Gold & Silver will continue to be a favored spot. Gold can rise whether or not the stock market rises, just because of uncertainty and volatility at the top of the system.
Oil is telling us demand concerns are real
OPEC+ moves aren’t comforting. That oil dip speaks volumes—focus on economic resilience, not just headline relief. Instead of focusing on oil, that’s volatile at the top, focus on Natural Gas and Nuclear energy plays, as these are the future of the infrastructure energy grid globally. Oil demand could diminish as Natural Gas & Nuclear demand gain from a changing system. ETF’s like URA & stocks like LNG , XEL & CCJ are where my eyes are at.
Markets can still rally on data, not just rhetoric - Earnings Season in Focus
Equities are flat now—but a surprise inflation print or solid earnings could flip sentiment right back. Now’s the time to get your data-reaction playbook ready. Earnings season is right around the corner, and all eyes will be looking at future guidance. How are tariffs impacting companies? Is AI adoptions remaining strong? The Mag 7 will dictate overall market direction, but the bottom 493 haven’t caught up yet. I expect the second half of 2025 to be all about the RSP (Equal-Weight S&P 500).. Look underneath the hood at more value oriented areas, that should catch up whether Mag 7 earnings impress or distress.

📌 Bottom Line
The tariff fireworks may look familiar, but this time there’s a global edge not to miss. Trade, gold, currency—these are the early signals. Markets might drift, but outcomes matter. Position accordingly.

— Luke Lloyd, Lloyd Financial Group

Sources:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-usa-2025-07-08/

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/global-markets-global-markets-2025-07-08/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-producer-prices-rebound-less-than-expected-may-2025-06-12/

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-trump-tariffs-trade-war-06-12-2025?

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