Tensions Rise, Markets Hold: A Calm Before or the New Normal, LFG Daily - July 14th, 2025
Even as tariff threats resurface and inflation data looms, markets remain composed—but undercurrents in gold, oil, and Treasuries suggest it’s time to read between the lines.
🧨 LFG Daily – July 14, 2025
Markets steady—but undercurrents are shifting fast.
🟢 LFG Hot Takes — Crafted for Calm and Clear Action
Tariff bluster is cooling, but tension persists
Trump’s threat of 30% tariffs on EU & Mexico is yet another policy twist—but markets aren’t panicking. That’s not because risk is gone—it’s because traders are used to it. Even so, the clock is ticking: come August, unresolved trade disputes could still punch holes in growth. The selloff we saw in March/April of this year was caused by the uncertainty around tariffs and the thought that countries wouldn’t play nice. Now, markets are much more complacent, because tariff deadlines keep getting extended and it seems countries are playing nice.. as things clear ahead, look at the equal-weight S&P 500.Oil’s bounce suggests global supply strain
Brent has surged to a three-week high (~$71.25/bbl). Tight supply, rising Chinese demand, and simmering geopolitical risk are pushing prices upward. Watch energy as a growing inflation input—not just a headline. I still think Energy plays are a great place to be. We could be in a commodity super-cycle, as it feels like demand is rising, supply is falling, and all-around energy needs are going up with technology & the human way!Money market shift reveals fiscal stress tolerance
Treasury bill issuance is set to jump by over $1 trillion over the next 18 months, yet money market funds are stepping in. The money effectively has to find a home. Bills have little duration, so are less stressful on financial markets. The shift to more bills effectively creates liquidity. The US using bills over bonds raises liquidity, helping boost assets, of late.Data & earnings will draw the line ahead
CPI and PPI due this week, followed by results from major banks and tech. The real action won’t be the tariffs—it’ll be whether earnings and inflation align with the story. Prepare for surprises—both ways. If you’re a nerd like me, listen into the earnings calls. Listen to the tonality of the executives and what forward guidance looks like. They know best about what their actual projections look like.. listen to see if they seem nervous.
📉 Market & Economic Pulse
Asian and Gulf markets slip on tariff news: Middle Eastern stocks fell as Asian equities softened; Europe’s STOXX 600 was down ~0.5%, while TSX futures dipped (~0.3%) amid trade jitters.
Gold & silver rise: Safe-haven flows lifted gold (~$3,367/oz) and pushed silver to 14‑year highs, supported by tariff uncertainty .
Oil hits multi‑week highs: Brent reached ~$71.25/bbl on tight supply and rising Chinese imports .
Bill issuance surges: U.S. Treasury prepares to issue $900 billion–$1.6 trillion in T‑bills over 18 months; money funds are ready to absorb.
Eyes on CPI & PPI: U.S. inflation data due this week; markets expect CPI ~0.3% MoM; any upside could derail the calm .
🌐 Geopolitics & Trade
New U.S. tariff threats land on EU & Mexico: A 30% tariff announcement for August 1 triggered defiant responses from EU and Mexico, though markets are reluctant to price in full escalation.
Europe holds off retaliation: EU extended its countermeasure pause while seeking a negotiated settlement. Germany hinted it may respond if tensions continue.
U.S. Politics & Policy
Fed remains data-driven: More mixed snap surveys—rising prices yet softening demand—mean the Fed has to balance competing signals as it weighs September rate cuts.
Fiscal cliff approaches: With expanded T-bill supply and tariff pressure, long-term government funding could become volatile—money funds say they can absorb, but the system is flexing.
📌 Bottom Line
Markets are calm—but the currents are shifting. Watch inflation and earnings, not just headlines. Tariff talk may grab attention—but real volatility lives in data and fiscal flows. Ground yourself in fundamentals.
— Luke Lloyd, Lloyd Financial Group
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/major-gulf-markets-ease-fresh-us-tariff-threats-2025-07-14/
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-07-14/
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-prices-scale-three-week-peak-trump-widens-trade-war-2025-07-14/
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/slew-t-bills-coming-money-market-funds-say-bring-em-on-2025-07-14/
https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-hunt-reason-cut-rates-surveys-tariffs-make-answers-elusive-2025-07-08/
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